KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

60%

49%

45%

43%

Consensus

51%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.7¢Risks 53.70u

EPSNO 46.3¢Risks 46.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.30u · EPS −46.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	—	—	—	38.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	68.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	—	2.3%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	90.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	25.0%	—	92.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	28.9%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	79.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	35.5%	0.1%	90.7%	—	—	82.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	43.8%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	89.1%	90.1%	0.3%	—	83.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	89.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.9%	72.2%	92.9%	44.2%	—	82.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	34.7%	—	79.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	80.5%	94.2%	43.9%	—	73.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	85.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	84.1%	73.2%	56.4%	—	71.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	49.2%	89.5%	12.5%	—	67.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.9%	2.8%	61.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	37.1%	53.5%	19.0%	—	66.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	84.5%	55.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.0%	33.0%	63.6%	40.0%	—	63.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	37.0%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	51.0%	55.8%	37.6%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	47.0%	51.0%	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	53.1%	58.2%	36.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.8%	42.6%	65.5%	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	54.4%	65.9%	28.2%	0.0%	63.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	56.7%	78.6%	0.0%	—	61.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	48.8%	79.3%	37.4%	75.8%	58.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	37.0%	80.1%	27.3%	—	54.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	53.7%	77.3%	22.7%	—	66.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	46.1%	80.0%	31.4%	—	70.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	42.0%	80.9%	29.5%	74.9%	65.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	56.9%	81.8%	45.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	64.2%	85.4%	35.8%	85.4%	79.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	61.9%	74.0%	33.8%	—	74.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	10.2%	62.4%	75.0%	43.7%	94.3%	72.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	70.5%	79.7%	59.8%	—	88.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	64%	67.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.4096
ICON	60%	66.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.3588
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	0.3036
WeatherNext 2	49%	65.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2381
AIFS Single	45%	65.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.2061
National Blend	44%	65.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-16 06:00	0.1936
IFS Ensemble	43%	64.6°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1884

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗