KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

26%

<1%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.6¢Risks 28.55u

WN2NO 71.4¢Risks 71.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.45u · WN2 −71.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T04:16:23+00:00	11.7%	14.2%	5.6%	44.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	11.7%	14.2%	3.1%	44.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:54+00:00	11.7%	14.2%	3.1%	44.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	11.7%	14.2%	3.1%	44.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	11.7%	14.2%	3.1%	44.4%	67.5%
2026-10-13T08:04:16+00:00	19.3%	14.2%	3.1%	48.8%	48.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	19.3%	14.2%	3.1%	48.8%	48.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	19.3%	14.2%	3.1%	48.8%	48.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:59+00:00	19.3%	14.2%	3.1%	48.8%	48.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	19.3%	8.4%	3.5%	48.8%	48.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	19.3%	8.4%	3.5%	48.8%	48.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	19.3%	8.4%	3.5%	48.8%	48.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	19.3%	8.4%	3.5%	48.8%	48.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	15.4%	8.4%	3.5%	48.8%	48.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	15.4%	7.7%	3.5%	48.8%	48.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	15.4%	7.7%	3.5%	48.8%	48.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	15.4%	7.7%	3.5%	48.8%	48.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	15.4%	7.7%	6.1%	48.8%	48.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	15.4%	7.7%	6.1%	48.8%	48.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	15.4%	7.7%	6.1%	48.8%	48.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	15.0%	7.7%	6.1%	48.8%	56.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	15.0%	7.7%	6.1%	48.8%	56.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	15.0%	7.7%	6.1%	48.8%	56.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	15.0%	7.7%	6.1%	48.8%	56.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	15.0%	7.7%	6.1%	26.1%	56.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	15.0%	7.6%	0.9%	26.1%	56.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	15.0%	7.6%	0.9%	26.1%	56.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	15.0%	7.6%	0.9%	26.1%	56.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	6.8%	7.6%	0.9%	26.1%	56.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	6.8%	7.6%	0.9%	26.1%	56.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	73.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	72.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	68.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	63.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	64.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	61.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗