KBIL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST16%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

56%

26%

<1%

Consensus

16%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 28.6¢Risks 28.55u

WN2NO 71.4¢Risks 71.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +71.45u · WN2 −71.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	16.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	12.9%	—	—	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	0.1%	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	30.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	63.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	4.5%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	36.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.0%	55.4%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	3.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	50.0%	52.1%	0.0%	—	40.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	24.3%	57.3%	7.6%	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	31.6%	59.1%	6.8%	—	23.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	34.5%	21.8%	10.8%	—	20.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	6.9%	41.7%	0.4%	—	15.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	0.0%	11.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	3.1%	7.3%	0.8%	—	13.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	28.7%	7.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	2.0%	10.2%	3.0%	—	10.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	2.3%	7.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	4.6%	5.9%	2.1%	—	10.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	3.4%	4.2%	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	4.2%	5.5%	1.6%	—	8.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.0%	7.2%	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.5%	6.6%	0.6%	0.0%	5.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	3.5%	11.8%	0.0%	—	4.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.9%	11.0%	0.9%	9.0%	3.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	10.2%	0.3%	—	2.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.8%	7.5%	0.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.9%	7.7%	0.3%	—	4.3%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.5%	7.0%	0.2%	4.6%	2.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.2%	6.2%	0.5%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.5%	6.8%	0.2%	6.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	56%	73.6°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
National Blend	45%	72.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	26%	68.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	8%	63.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	64.6°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	61.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 13 · 04:16 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗