KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

93%

75%

66%

60%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

ICONNO 22.3¢Risks 22.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +22.25u · ICON −22.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:00:04+00:00	0.2%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	78.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:41+00:00	0.2%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	78.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	0.2%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	78.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	0.2%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	78.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	0.2%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	78.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	0.2%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	78.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	0.1%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	13.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	0.1%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	13.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	0.1%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	13.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:56+00:00	0.1%	74.9%	17.3%	68.2%	13.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:35+00:00	0.1%	74.9%	17.3%	52.4%	13.7%
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	0.1%	63.0%	25.7%	52.4%	13.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	0.1%	63.0%	25.7%	52.4%	13.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	0.1%	63.0%	25.7%	52.4%	13.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	13.7%	63.0%	25.7%	52.4%	13.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	14.5%	62.9%	26.0%	52.4%	13.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	14.5%	64.0%	26.0%	52.4%	13.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	14.5%	64.0%	26.0%	52.4%	13.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	14.5%	64.0%	26.0%	52.4%	13.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	14.5%	64.0%	48.3%	52.4%	13.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	14.5%	64.0%	48.3%	52.4%	13.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	14.5%	64.0%	48.3%	52.4%	13.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	82.8%	64.0%	48.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	82.8%	64.0%	48.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	82.8%	64.0%	48.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	82.8%	64.0%	48.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	82.8%	64.0%	48.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	82.8%	64.0%	77.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	82.8%	64.0%	77.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	82.8%	64.0%	77.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	77.7%	64.0%	77.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	77.7%	64.0%	77.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	77.7%	64.0%	77.3%	91.2%	68.5%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	87.9%	87.7%	57.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	87.9%	87.7%	57.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.1%	87.7%	57.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.1%	87.7%	57.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.1%	87.7%	57.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.1%	87.7%	57.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.1%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.1%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.1%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.1%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	74.0%	74.8%	92.8%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	74.1%	74.8%	92.8%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	74.1%	74.8%	92.8%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	65.7%	74.8%	92.8%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	65.7%	74.8%	92.8%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	65.7%	74.8%	92.8%	95.0%	60.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	65.7%	74.8%	92.8%	95.0%	60.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	67.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	60%	65.1°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗