KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST79%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

93%

75%

66%

60%

Consensus

79%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 77.8¢Risks 77.75u

ICONNO 22.3¢Risks 22.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +22.25u · ICON −22.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	26.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	24.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	86.1%	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	95.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	53.9%	—	—	80.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	61.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.7%	36.1%	—	—	64.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	4.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	71.4%	95.5%	23.0%	—	29.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.9%	89.0%	27.2%	—	38.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	78.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	48.5%	97.8%	0.7%	—	65.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	27.4%	37.5%	90.7%	93.3%	—	79.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	91.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	45.0%	40.9%	96.9%	59.1%	—	82.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	0.0%	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	6.5%	98.1%	91.0%	—	89.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.2%	40.2%	98.2%	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	40.9%	81.0%	97.4%	92.4%	—	82.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	52.8%	99.0%	—	—	88.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	72.9%	97.5%	83.5%	—	85.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	79.6%	98.9%	—	—	90.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	56.1%	97.0%	70.6%	0.0%	89.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.5%	74.7%	99.1%	—	—	92.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.5%	77.0%	98.0%	79.4%	—	96.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.6%	46.6%	81.0%	0.0%	—	94.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	30.0%	51.2%	81.7%	85.3%	0.0%	94.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	28.3%	50.0%	81.7%	81.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	27.6%	78.3%	70.2%	73.4%	65.8%	93.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	60.2%	75.2%	60.2%	—	88.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.0%	77.0%	80.9%	68.1%	63.2%	87.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	77.9%	81.8%	72.4%	—	81.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	22.2%	65.5%	77.8%	76.6%	66.9%	79.8%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	79.8%	88.0%	—	71.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	95%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	93%	69.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	67.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	65.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
ICON	60%	65.1°F	6.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 14 · 03:00 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 64°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗