KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

80%

68%

56%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.9¢Risks 49.85u

ICONNO 50.1¢Risks 50.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.15u · ICON −50.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:58+00:00	50.0%	61.6%	83.5%	90.3%	47.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	50.0%	61.6%	86.8%	90.3%	47.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	50.0%	61.6%	86.8%	90.3%	47.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	50.0%	61.6%	86.8%	90.3%	47.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	57.8%	61.6%	86.8%	90.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	57.8%	61.6%	86.8%	90.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	57.8%	61.6%	86.8%	90.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	57.8%	61.6%	86.8%	90.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	57.8%	61.6%	86.8%	90.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	57.8%	68.3%	79.8%	90.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	57.8%	68.3%	79.8%	90.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	57.8%	68.3%	79.8%	90.3%	6.9%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	56.1%	68.3%	79.8%	92.8%	6.9%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	56.1%	68.3%	79.8%	92.8%	6.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	72.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	68.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	67.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	66.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	7%	58.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗