KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST63%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

80%

68%

56%

Consensus

63%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.9¢Risks 49.85u

ICONNO 50.1¢Risks 50.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.15u · ICON −50.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	89.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	34.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	15.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	78.0%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	41.0%	—	—	69.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	24.4%	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	58.4%	91.0%	13.7%	—	18.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	84.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.7%	80.6%	16.5%	—	25.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	33.7%	94.8%	0.2%	—	50.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	23.6%	82.1%	86.4%	—	66.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.0%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	25.8%	92.6%	42.5%	—	70.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	0.0%	93.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	2.5%	94.8%	81.6%	—	79.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.2%	24.2%	95.0%	—	—	78.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	66.1%	93.0%	83.4%	—	67.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	34.3%	96.8%	—	—	76.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	54.9%	92.8%	68.7%	—	72.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	62.8%	96.2%	—	—	78.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.7%	35.9%	91.4%	51.0%	0.0%	77.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	55.3%	96.7%	—	—	81.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	57.6%	93.4%	60.8%	—	89.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	25.8%	62.2%	0.0%	—	83.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	28.9%	62.6%	68.0%	0.0%	84.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	27.3%	61.9%	61.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	56.2%	46.3%	50.0%	41.3%	81.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	34.9%	51.3%	34.9%	—	70.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	52.7%	58.0%	42.0%	36.8%	68.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	52.8%	58.3%	45.8%	—	58.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	37.2%	51.4%	50.0%	38.6%	54.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	53.0%	66.2%	—	42.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	72.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	68.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	68%	67.8°F	4.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	66.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	7%	58.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗