KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

59%

50%

<1%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

AIFSNO 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.90u · AIFS −65.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T11:05:25+00:00	0.2%	60.0%	18.3%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T11:50:43+00:00	0.2%	60.0%	18.3%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	0.2%	60.0%	18.3%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T13:20:57+00:00	0.2%	60.0%	18.3%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T14:06:05+00:00	0.8%	60.0%	18.3%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	0.8%	58.9%	18.3%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:51+00:00	0.8%	58.9%	18.3%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	0.8%	58.9%	18.3%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	0.8%	58.9%	20.5%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:20+00:00	0.8%	58.9%	20.5%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:25+00:00	0.8%	58.9%	20.5%	83.6%	9.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	0.2%	58.9%	20.5%	83.6%	68.2%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	0.2%	58.9%	20.5%	83.6%	68.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	0.2%	58.9%	20.5%	83.6%	68.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:20+00:00	0.2%	58.9%	20.5%	83.6%	68.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	0.2%	58.9%	20.5%	50.0%	68.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	0.2%	58.9%	6.1%	50.0%	68.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	0.2%	58.9%	6.1%	50.0%	68.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:55+00:00	0.2%	58.9%	6.1%	50.0%	68.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:14+00:00	0.0%	58.9%	6.1%	50.0%	68.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	0.0%	58.9%	6.1%	50.0%	68.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	71.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	68.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	66.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	58.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	47.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗