KBIL / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST14%Oct 14 · 02:14 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

59%

50%

<1%

Consensus

14%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 34.1¢Risks 34.10u

AIFSNO 65.9¢Risks 65.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +65.90u · AIFS −65.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	27.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	14.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	29.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	73.0%	—	—	37.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	87.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	34.8%	—	—	64.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	41.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	19.4%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	51.4%	87.8%	10.2%	—	14.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	79.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	75.1%	12.4%	—	19.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	27.0%	92.4%	0.1%	—	43.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	17.9%	76.4%	81.6%	—	58.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	19.5%	89.2%	34.5%	—	62.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.2%	0.0%	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	19.0%	1.5%	92.0%	75.2%	—	73.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	17.8%	92.2%	—	—	71.3%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.8%	57.3%	89.4%	77.0%	—	59.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	26.1%	94.7%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	45.1%	88.9%	59.6%	—	63.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	53.0%	93.7%	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	26.8%	86.6%	40.8%	0.0%	68.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	44.7%	94.2%	—	—	73.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	46.7%	89.1%	50.0%	—	83.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	17.5%	51.1%	0.0%	—	76.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	19.9%	51.2%	57.0%	0.0%	75.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	18.3%	50.0%	50.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.3%	43.8%	34.2%	37.7%	29.8%	72.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.6%	23.8%	38.5%	23.8%	—	59.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	39.4%	44.6%	29.5%	25.1%	55.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	39.0%	44.4%	32.5%	—	44.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	24.5%	37.2%	35.8%	25.6%	40.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	38.1%	51.5%	—	28.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	68%	71.2°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	59%	68.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	67.0°F	7.6°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	66.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	6%	58.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	47.3°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261020-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗