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KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
99%
WN2
98%
HRES
97%
EPS
94%
ICON
93%
Consensus
95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 95.9¢Risks 23.98u
VS
ICONNO 4.1¢Risks 1.02u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +1.02u · ICON −1.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00AIFS Single: 97.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00AIFS Single: 93.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00AIFS Single: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00AIFS Single: 98.6% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 68.0% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 93.5% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.7% · 2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 98.3% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00IFS HRES: 99.9% · 2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00IFS HRES: 99.9% · 2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00IFS HRES: 99.9% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00IFS HRES: 99.9% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00IFS HRES: 99.9% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00IFS HRES: 97.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00ICON: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:00ICON: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:00ICON: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00ICON: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:00ICON: 90.3% · 2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00ICON: 93.3% · 2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00ICON: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00ICON: 93.2% · 2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0010-15 04:0210-15 09:2110-15 14:48
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T04:02:36+00:0097.9%68.0%98.7%99.9%90.3%
2026-10-15T04:48:08+00:0097.9%68.0%98.7%99.9%90.3%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:0097.9%68.0%97.2%99.9%90.3%
2026-10-15T06:18:31+00:0097.9%68.0%97.2%99.9%90.3%
2026-10-15T07:03:40+00:0097.9%68.0%97.2%99.9%90.3%
2026-10-15T07:50:24+00:0093.8%68.0%97.2%97.2%93.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:0093.8%68.0%97.2%97.2%93.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:0093.8%68.0%97.2%97.2%93.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:0093.8%68.0%97.2%97.2%93.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:0093.8%68.0%98.3%97.2%93.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:0093.8%68.0%98.3%97.2%93.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:0093.8%93.5%98.3%97.2%93.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:0093.8%93.5%98.3%97.2%93.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:0098.6%93.5%98.3%97.2%93.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:0098.6%93.5%98.3%97.2%93.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single99%64.3°F5.4°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 298%62.4°F4.7°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS HRES97%65.1°F6.6°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble94%65.4°F8.5°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
ICON93%63.1°F7.1°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
National Blend65%56.0°F8.9°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
NWS forecast53%53.0°F5.9°F2026-10-15 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 53°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗