KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 53°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

98%

97%

94%

93%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 95.9¢Risks 23.98u

ICONNO 4.1¢Risks 1.02u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +1.02u · ICON −1.02u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	84.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	—	—	—	—	84.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	91.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	65.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	68.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	74.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	23.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	28.8%	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	57.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	83.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	77.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	31.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	50.0%	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	2.7%	73.5%	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	97.6%	92.8%	75.9%	14.9%	—	91.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	—	92.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	78.5%	90.0%	98.5%	98.7%	—	98.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	87.8%	69.7%	99.9%	73.6%	—	97.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	94.3%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	92.2%	82.6%	99.1%	75.2%	—	98.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.7%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	99.5%	97.5%	98.5%	—	98.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.8%	56.8%	98.9%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.9%	99.7%	99.1%	—	99.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.9%	99.6%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	99.1%	99.9%	98.2%	—	99.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	98.9%	99.8%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.2%	99.7%	99.9%	97.5%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.3%	99.7%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.7%	100.0%	99.3%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.8%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.8%	99.9%	100.0%	99.5%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	5.4%	—	100.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	0.0%	100.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	100.0%	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	99%	64.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	62.4°F	4.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	97%	65.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	94%	65.4°F	8.5°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
ICON	93%	63.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
National Blend	65%	56.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	53.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-15 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 53°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE53
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 53°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗