KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

95%

86%

64%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 81.7¢Risks 81.70u

EPSNO 18.3¢Risks 18.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +18.30u · EPS −18.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:02+00:00	26.7%	62.5%	58.7%	73.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	26.7%	62.5%	58.7%	73.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T12:51:23+00:00	26.7%	62.5%	58.7%	73.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	63.9%	62.5%	58.7%	73.6%	18.5%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	63.9%	62.5%	58.7%	73.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T15:12:44+00:00	63.9%	63.6%	58.7%	73.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	63.9%	63.6%	58.7%	73.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	63.9%	63.6%	58.7%	73.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	63.9%	63.6%	84.1%	73.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	63.9%	63.6%	84.1%	73.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	63.9%	63.6%	84.1%	73.6%	18.8%
2026-10-14T19:43:40+00:00	99.0%	63.6%	84.1%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	99.0%	63.6%	84.1%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:58+00:00	99.0%	63.6%	84.1%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	99.0%	63.6%	84.1%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	99.0%	63.6%	84.1%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	99.0%	63.6%	96.5%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	99.0%	63.6%	96.5%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	99.0%	63.6%	96.5%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:22+00:00	95.3%	63.6%	96.5%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	95.3%	63.6%	96.5%	99.8%	86.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	95.3%	63.6%	96.5%	99.8%	86.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	63.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	86%	65.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	60.2°F	16.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 55°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗