KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

96%

95%

86%

64%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 81.7¢Risks 81.70u

EPSNO 18.3¢Risks 18.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +18.30u · EPS −18.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	90.0%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	92.7%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	89.7%	—	—	—	—	77.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	86.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	58.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	65.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	19.7%	—	—	60.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	45.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	20.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	37.2%	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	16.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	1.2%	61.3%	—	—	70.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	83.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	94.8%	86.7%	63.8%	8.2%	—	84.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	83.4%	—	85.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	66.3%	82.0%	96.4%	96.8%	—	96.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	99.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	55.3%	99.7%	59.8%	—	94.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	88.4%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	70.5%	97.5%	61.0%	—	96.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	—	98.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	92.6%	98.4%	93.9%	96.1%	—	95.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	88.5%	39.8%	96.9%	—	—	6.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	95.0%	99.6%	98.8%	97.2%	—	99.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.4%	99.5%	98.5%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	96.1%	97.1%	99.6%	95.0%	—	99.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	96.4%	99.0%	99.8%	—	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	97.3%	98.9%	99.6%	92.8%	—	99.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	97.5%	98.6%	99.9%	—	—	99.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	97.7%	98.8%	100.0%	97.4%	—	99.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.1%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.5%	100.0%	97.9%	—	99.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	99.1%	99.7%	100.0%	1.5%	—	99.9%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	99.0%	99.9%	100.0%	99.1%	0.0%	99.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	—	100.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	99.9%	100.0%	99.7%	100.0%	100.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	99.6%	—	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	72.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	96%	63.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	95%	63.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending
ICON	86%	65.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	60.2°F	16.4°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	55.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 55°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗