KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

83%

80%

74%

53%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.8¢Risks 69.75u

ICONNO 30.2¢Risks 30.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.25u · ICON −30.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:59+00:00	82.3%	76.6%	88.9%	78.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	82.3%	76.6%	76.7%	78.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	82.3%	76.6%	76.7%	78.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	82.3%	76.6%	76.7%	78.9%	46.1%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	78.4%	76.6%	76.7%	78.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	78.4%	76.6%	76.7%	78.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	78.4%	76.6%	76.7%	78.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	78.4%	76.6%	76.7%	78.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	78.4%	76.6%	76.7%	78.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	78.4%	86.8%	73.7%	78.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	78.4%	86.8%	73.7%	78.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	78.4%	86.8%	73.7%	78.9%	52.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	82.8%	86.8%	73.7%	79.7%	52.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	82.8%	86.8%	73.7%	79.7%	52.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	67.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	64.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	64.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	62.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	53%	59.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗