KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

83%

80%

74%

53%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 69.8¢Risks 69.75u

ICONNO 30.2¢Risks 30.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +30.25u · ICON −30.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	31.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	37.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	12.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	5.6%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	12.7%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.1%	28.8%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	77.0%	59.1%	29.8%	1.1%	—	54.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	50.0%	81.1%	82.5%	—	80.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	94.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	43.2%	20.5%	95.9%	23.9%	—	72.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	50.8%	32.3%	83.2%	23.6%	—	77.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	57.3%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	65.5%	86.2%	69.2%	76.2%	—	72.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	9.2%	78.6%	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	70.9%	94.1%	87.8%	79.2%	—	89.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	75.0%	92.8%	85.0%	—	—	92.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	72.6%	77.0%	93.4%	68.6%	—	93.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	73.2%	87.3%	95.8%	—	—	91.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	76.0%	85.8%	92.5%	59.6%	—	90.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	75.9%	83.0%	95.8%	—	—	93.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	75.7%	83.0%	98.0%	74.1%	—	91.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.4%	85.0%	98.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	83.8%	88.1%	98.9%	74.5%	—	95.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	91.3%	99.2%	0.0%	—	94.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	81.0%	94.9%	99.9%	81.7%	0.0%	93.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	84.0%	95.7%	100.0%	89.8%	—	96.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	87.6%	94.5%	99.9%	88.8%	98.0%	98.0%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	84.2%	—	100.0%	91.8%	—	98.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	87%	67.2°F	6.9°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	64.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	80%	64.3°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	74%	62.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	60.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending
ICON	53%	59.9°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	60.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 60°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗