KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 17:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

57%

56%

40%

28%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

ICONNO 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +55.90u · ICON −55.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00	53.5%	54.3%	50.0%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	53.5%	54.3%	67.6%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	53.5%	54.3%	67.6%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	53.5%	54.3%	67.6%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	53.5%	54.3%	67.6%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00	55.6%	54.3%	67.6%	49.1%	41.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	55.6%	54.3%	67.6%	49.1%	41.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	55.6%	54.3%	67.6%	49.1%	41.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	55.6%	54.3%	67.6%	49.1%	41.0%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00	55.6%	65.8%	67.2%	49.1%	41.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	55.6%	65.8%	67.2%	49.1%	41.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	55.6%	65.8%	67.2%	49.1%	41.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	55.6%	65.8%	67.2%	49.1%	41.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	54.7%	65.3%	67.2%	49.1%	41.1%
2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00	60.2%	67.0%	71.4%	39.4%	34.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	60.2%	67.0%	69.3%	39.4%	34.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	60.2%	67.0%	69.3%	39.4%	34.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	60.2%	67.0%	69.3%	39.4%	34.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00	61.6%	67.0%	69.3%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	61.6%	67.0%	69.3%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	61.6%	67.0%	69.3%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	61.6%	67.0%	69.3%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	61.6%	67.0%	69.3%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	61.6%	55.6%	74.1%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	61.6%	55.6%	74.1%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	61.6%	55.6%	74.1%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	59.7%	55.6%	74.1%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	59.8%	55.6%	74.1%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	59.8%	53.7%	74.1%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	59.8%	53.7%	74.1%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	59.8%	53.7%	74.1%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	59.8%	53.7%	66.3%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	59.8%	53.7%	66.3%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	59.8%	53.7%	66.3%	48.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	54.9%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	54.9%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	54.9%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	54.9%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	54.9%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	54.9%	53.7%	65.1%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	54.9%	53.7%	65.1%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	54.9%	53.7%	65.1%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	65.1%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	65.1%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	65.1%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	65.1%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	65.1%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	57.8%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	42.2%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	62.0%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	62.0%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	62.0%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	62.0%	53.7%	66.3%	38.5%	27.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00	62.0%	40.0%	58.2%	60.6%	27.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	62.0%	40.0%	58.2%	60.6%	27.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	62.0%	40.0%	58.2%	60.6%	27.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	62.0%	40.0%	58.2%	60.6%	27.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	62.0%	40.0%	58.2%	60.6%	27.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:25+00:00	62.0%	40.0%	58.2%	60.6%	27.6%
2026-10-20T15:32:42+00:00	62.0%	40.0%	58.2%	60.6%	27.6%
2026-10-20T16:18:01+00:00	62.0%	40.0%	58.2%	60.6%	27.6%
2026-10-20T17:03:30+00:00	56.1%	40.0%	56.8%	60.6%	27.6%
2026-10-20T17:48:40+00:00	56.1%	40.0%	56.8%	60.6%	27.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	61%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	66.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	66.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	65.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	64.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗