KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST48%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

57%

56%

40%

28%

Consensus

48%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 44.1¢Risks 44.10u

ICONNO 55.9¢Risks 55.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +55.90u · ICON −55.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	3.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	15.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.7%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.0%	5.8%	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	20.4%	5.6%	0.0%	—	17.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	17.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	13.6%	41.3%	43.4%	—	40.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.3%	2.4%	72.4%	3.2%	—	28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	46.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	4.9%	40.5%	2.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	43.4%	22.5%	29.3%	—	25.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	0.4%	31.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	59.6%	43.9%	30.7%	—	46.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	54.5%	37.6%	—	—	53.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	25.9%	54.6%	18.4%	—	55.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.0%	38.8%	62.1%	—	—	49.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	34.8%	49.0%	11.1%	—	44.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	29.1%	58.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	27.6%	69.7%	18.3%	—	43.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	28.8%	67.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	32.1%	74.5%	16.2%	—	51.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	36.7%	76.9%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	45.4%	91.0%	19.9%	0.0%	41.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	20.8%	46.4%	93.8%	29.3%	—	51.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	38.9%	88.8%	25.6%	57.4%	57.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	93.6%	29.1%	—	57.7%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	96.8%	—	0.0%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	61%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	57%	66.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	56%	66.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	42%	65.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	40%	64.1°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗