KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

49%

42%

24%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

ICONNO 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.40u · ICON −64.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:05+00:00	36.3%	51.4%	44.1%	31.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	36.3%	52.9%	44.1%	31.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	36.3%	52.9%	44.1%	31.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	36.3%	52.9%	45.3%	31.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	36.3%	52.9%	45.3%	31.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	36.3%	52.9%	45.3%	31.9%	23.4%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	35.4%	52.9%	45.3%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	35.4%	52.9%	45.3%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	35.4%	52.9%	45.3%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	35.4%	52.9%	45.3%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	35.4%	52.9%	45.3%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	35.4%	52.9%	48.8%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	35.4%	52.9%	48.8%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	35.4%	52.9%	48.8%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	41.7%	52.9%	48.8%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	41.7%	52.9%	48.8%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	41.7%	52.9%	48.8%	23.7%	18.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	41.7%	52.9%	48.8%	23.7%	18.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	67.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	67.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	66.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	64.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	63.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗