KBIL / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

53%

49%

42%

24%

18%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 35.6¢Risks 35.60u

ICONNO 64.4¢Risks 64.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +64.40u · ICON −64.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	16.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	7.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.3%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.0%	2.8%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	11.9%	2.6%	0.0%	—	9.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	7.1%	27.9%	29.7%	—	27.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	0.9%	58.3%	1.3%	—	17.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	2.0%	26.1%	1.0%	—	20.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	27.9%	12.0%	16.8%	—	14.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.6%	0.1%	17.8%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	11.3%	42.2%	27.7%	17.2%	—	29.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	36.8%	22.2%	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	13.4%	36.4%	8.6%	—	37.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	22.4%	43.4%	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	10.7%	19.0%	30.4%	4.4%	—	26.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	14.6%	39.1%	—	—	30.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	13.4%	50.0%	7.8%	—	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	13.8%	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	11.4%	15.5%	54.4%	6.2%	—	30.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	18.3%	56.7%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	24.2%	77.6%	7.6%	0.0%	21.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	24.4%	82.5%	12.6%	—	28.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	18.2%	72.4%	10.0%	33.1%	33.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	80.9%	11.5%	—	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	55%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	67.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	49%	67.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	66.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	24%	64.3°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	18%	63.9°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261021-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 68°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗