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KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
>99%
HRES
91%
AIFS
91%
WN2
84%
EPS
54%
Consensus
86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 76.8¢Risks 76.75u
VS
EPSNO 23.2¢Risks 23.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.25u · EPS −23.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-16T04:25:00+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00AIFS Single: 91.9% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00AIFS Single: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00AIFS Single: 90.9% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00AIFS Single: 90.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T04:25:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.6% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 54.4% · 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.3% · 2026-10-16T04:25:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 84.2% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 83.8% · 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T04:25:00+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00IFS HRES: 96.2% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00IFS HRES: 90.9% · 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-16T04:25:00+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00ICON: 99.1% · 2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:0010-16 04:2510-16 09:4110-16 14:19
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-16T04:25:00+00:0091.9%55.6%89.3%96.2%75.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:0091.9%55.6%84.2%96.2%75.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:0091.9%55.6%84.2%96.2%75.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:0091.9%55.6%84.2%96.2%75.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:0089.3%55.6%84.2%96.2%99.1%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:0089.3%55.6%84.2%96.2%99.1%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:0089.3%55.6%84.2%96.2%99.1%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:0089.3%55.6%84.2%96.2%99.1%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:0089.3%55.6%84.2%96.2%99.1%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:0089.3%54.4%83.8%96.2%99.1%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:0089.3%54.4%83.8%96.2%99.1%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:0089.3%54.4%83.8%96.2%99.1%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:0090.9%54.4%83.8%90.9%99.1%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:0090.8%54.4%83.8%90.9%99.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON>99%78.5°F7.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
IFS HRES91%70.3°F6.6°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
AIFS Single91%68.7°F5.4°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 284%66.1°F4.7°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
National Blend58%63.0°F7.8°F2026-10-16 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble54%62.5°F9.1°F2026-10-16 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-16 02:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗