KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST86%Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

91%

91%

84%

54%

Consensus

86%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 76.8¢Risks 76.75u

EPSNO 23.2¢Risks 23.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.25u · EPS −23.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	31.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	36.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	50.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	92.8%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	42.4%	—	94.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	93.1%	—	—	69.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	38.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	0.9%	72.4%	—	—	76.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	68.3%	65.1%	85.1%	3.5%	—	82.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	77.0%	—	97.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	99.3%	98.0%	77.4%	—	89.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.2%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	85.4%	45.4%	84.9%	—	91.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	99.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	82.1%	95.3%	99.8%	94.1%	—	98.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	76.3%	—	100.0%	—	—	98.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	79.3%	99.6%	100.0%	97.7%	—	98.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	78.6%	50.0%	99.9%	—	—	98.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	97.1%	99.8%	96.2%	—	98.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	82.2%	95.7%	99.9%	—	—	99.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	81.6%	98.0%	99.9%	99.0%	—	99.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	81.7%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	99.0%	99.9%	98.6%	—	99.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	87.1%	100.0%	99.8%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	85.5%	98.7%	99.9%	99.7%	—	99.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—	99.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	88.6%	99.1%	100.0%	99.5%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	100.0%	0.0%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	>99%	78.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	91%	70.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	91%	68.7°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	84%	66.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
National Blend	58%	63.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	54%	62.5°F	9.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 02:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 62°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗