KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

60%

34%

24%

22%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 41.5¢Risks 41.50u

ICONNO 58.5¢Risks 58.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.50u · ICON −58.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T07:50:26+00:00	19.2%	13.8%	3.2%	24.9%	2.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:53+00:00	19.2%	13.8%	3.2%	24.9%	2.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	19.2%	13.8%	3.2%	24.9%	2.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:43+00:00	19.2%	13.8%	3.2%	24.9%	2.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:45+00:00	19.2%	13.8%	5.3%	24.9%	2.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:36+00:00	19.2%	13.8%	5.3%	24.9%	2.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:58+00:00	19.2%	18.7%	5.3%	24.9%	2.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:37+00:00	19.2%	18.7%	5.3%	24.9%	2.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:55+00:00	30.5%	18.7%	5.5%	25.1%	2.0%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	30.5%	18.7%	5.5%	25.1%	2.0%
2026-10-15T15:34:40+00:00	30.5%	18.6%	5.5%	25.1%	2.0%
2026-10-15T16:20:15+00:00	30.5%	18.6%	5.5%	25.1%	2.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	30.5%	18.6%	11.9%	25.1%	2.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	30.5%	18.6%	11.9%	25.1%	2.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:01+00:00	30.5%	18.6%	11.9%	25.1%	2.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	30.5%	18.6%	11.9%	25.1%	2.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:22+00:00	21.5%	18.6%	11.9%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:36+00:00	21.5%	18.6%	11.9%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	21.5%	18.6%	11.9%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:55+00:00	21.5%	18.6%	11.9%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:06+00:00	21.5%	18.6%	17.7%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:18+00:00	21.5%	18.6%	17.7%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:28+00:00	21.5%	18.6%	17.7%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:51+00:00	30.0%	18.6%	17.7%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:22+00:00	30.0%	18.6%	17.7%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:35+00:00	30.0%	18.6%	17.7%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	30.0%	18.6%	17.7%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T04:25:01+00:00	30.0%	18.6%	17.7%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	30.0%	18.6%	12.3%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	30.0%	18.6%	12.3%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	30.0%	18.6%	12.3%	52.5%	33.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	21.3%	18.6%	12.3%	52.5%	79.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:29+00:00	21.3%	18.6%	12.3%	52.5%	79.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	21.3%	18.6%	12.3%	52.5%	79.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	21.3%	18.6%	12.3%	52.5%	79.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	21.3%	18.6%	12.3%	52.5%	79.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:26+00:00	21.3%	13.6%	8.5%	52.5%	79.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	21.3%	13.6%	8.5%	52.5%	79.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	21.3%	13.6%	8.5%	52.5%	79.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:55+00:00	24.0%	13.6%	8.5%	36.9%	79.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:56+00:00	24.1%	13.6%	8.5%	36.9%	80.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	24.1%	12.9%	8.5%	36.9%	80.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	24.1%	12.8%	8.5%	36.9%	80.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	24.1%	12.8%	8.5%	36.9%	80.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:30+00:00	24.1%	12.8%	27.4%	36.9%	80.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	24.1%	12.8%	27.4%	36.9%	80.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	24.1%	12.8%	27.4%	36.9%	80.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:15+00:00	21.3%	12.8%	27.4%	36.9%	40.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:41+00:00	21.3%	12.8%	27.4%	36.9%	40.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	21.3%	12.8%	27.4%	36.9%	40.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	21.3%	12.8%	27.4%	36.9%	40.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	21.3%	12.8%	27.4%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:36+00:00	21.3%	12.8%	28.2%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	21.3%	12.8%	28.2%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	21.3%	12.8%	28.2%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:11+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	28.2%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	28.2%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	28.2%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	28.2%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	28.2%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	44.0%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	44.0%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	22.4%	12.8%	44.0%	59.0%	40.0%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	30.0%	12.8%	44.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	30.0%	12.8%	44.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	30.0%	12.8%	44.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	30.0%	12.8%	44.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	30.0%	12.8%	44.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	30.0%	30.3%	50.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	30.0%	30.3%	50.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	30.0%	30.3%	50.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	22.8%	30.3%	50.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	22.7%	30.3%	50.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00	22.7%	30.6%	50.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	22.7%	30.6%	50.0%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	22.7%	30.6%	48.1%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	22.7%	30.6%	48.1%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	22.7%	30.6%	48.1%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	22.7%	30.6%	48.1%	49.3%	50.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	25.2%	30.6%	48.1%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	25.2%	30.6%	48.1%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	25.2%	30.6%	48.1%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	25.2%	30.6%	48.1%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	25.2%	30.6%	49.0%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	25.2%	30.6%	49.0%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	25.2%	30.6%	49.0%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	25.2%	30.6%	49.0%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	24.0%	30.6%	49.0%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	24.0%	30.6%	49.0%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	24.0%	30.6%	49.0%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00	24.0%	30.6%	49.0%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	24.0%	30.6%	57.7%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	24.0%	30.6%	57.7%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00	24.0%	30.6%	57.7%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	24.0%	30.6%	57.7%	56.2%	75.4%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00	23.6%	30.6%	57.7%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	23.6%	30.6%	57.7%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00	23.6%	30.6%	57.7%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00	23.6%	30.6%	57.7%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00	23.6%	26.9%	56.4%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	23.6%	26.9%	56.4%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00	23.6%	26.9%	56.4%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00	23.6%	26.9%	56.4%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00	25.0%	27.1%	56.4%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T14:56:07+00:00	25.0%	27.1%	56.4%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	25.0%	28.0%	56.4%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	25.0%	28.0%	56.4%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	25.0%	28.0%	67.6%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	25.0%	28.0%	67.6%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	25.0%	28.0%	67.6%	51.6%	44.3%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	23.6%	28.0%	67.6%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	23.6%	28.0%	67.6%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	23.6%	28.0%	67.6%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	23.6%	28.0%	67.6%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	23.6%	28.0%	67.6%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	23.6%	28.0%	56.4%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	23.6%	28.0%	56.4%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	23.6%	28.0%	56.4%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	22.9%	28.0%	56.4%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	22.9%	28.0%	56.4%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	22.9%	28.0%	56.4%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	22.9%	28.0%	56.4%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:27+00:00	22.9%	28.0%	56.4%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	22.9%	28.0%	63.6%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	22.9%	28.0%	63.6%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	22.9%	28.0%	63.6%	56.4%	46.7%
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00	27.1%	28.0%	63.6%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	27.1%	28.0%	63.6%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	27.1%	28.0%	63.6%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	27.1%	28.0%	63.6%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	27.1%	28.0%	63.6%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	27.1%	36.3%	66.1%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	27.1%	36.3%	66.1%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	27.1%	36.3%	66.1%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	26.4%	36.3%	66.1%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	26.3%	36.3%	66.2%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	26.3%	34.3%	66.2%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	26.3%	34.3%	66.2%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	26.3%	34.3%	66.2%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	26.3%	34.3%	64.0%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	26.3%	34.3%	64.0%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	26.3%	34.3%	64.0%	61.5%	43.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	22.6%	34.3%	64.0%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	22.6%	34.3%	64.0%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	22.6%	34.3%	64.0%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	22.6%	34.3%	64.0%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	22.6%	34.3%	64.0%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	22.6%	34.3%	51.2%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	22.6%	34.3%	51.2%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	22.6%	34.3%	51.2%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	27.1%	34.3%	51.2%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	27.1%	34.3%	51.2%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	27.1%	34.3%	51.2%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	27.1%	34.3%	51.2%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	27.1%	34.3%	51.2%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	27.1%	34.3%	57.1%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	27.1%	34.3%	57.1%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	27.1%	34.3%	57.1%	54.5%	33.5%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	23.6%	34.3%	57.1%	54.5%	22.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	23.6%	34.3%	57.1%	54.5%	22.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	23.6%	34.3%	57.1%	54.5%	22.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	23.6%	34.3%	57.1%	54.5%	22.4%
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00	23.6%	33.8%	60.2%	60.6%	22.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	23.6%	33.8%	60.2%	60.6%	22.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	23.6%	33.8%	60.2%	60.6%	22.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	23.6%	33.8%	60.2%	60.6%	22.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	77%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	70.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	22%	69.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗