KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST49%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

61%

60%

34%

24%

23%

Consensus

49%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 41.9¢Risks 41.95u

ICONNO 58.1¢Risks 58.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +58.05u · ICON −58.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	4.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	2.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	4.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	39.5%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	44.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	37.8%	—	—	9.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.0%	10.2%	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	15.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	7.2%	6.0%	18.4%	0.0%	—	15.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	66.3%	51.5%	10.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	14.6%	1.3%	14.2%	—	23.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	65.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	30.1%	75.8%	26.1%	—	46.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	88.2%	—	—	49.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	62.3%	86.7%	37.7%	—	48.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	0.9%	74.0%	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	29.9%	66.2%	26.2%	—	43.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	22.2%	70.6%	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	5.0%	31.4%	71.0%	41.8%	—	43.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	89.1%	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	36.6%	67.8%	31.3%	—	55.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	5.1%	82.3%	54.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	26.8%	63.1%	45.9%	—	44.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	86.8%	72.1%	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	25.5%	80.2%	33.1%	58.7%	56.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	89.3%	0.0%	—	60.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	77%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	60%	73.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	34%	70.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	24%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	23%	69.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 15 · 07:50 UTC

Original listing: Billings runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗