KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

35%

22%

11%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 25.3¢Risks 25.30u

ICONNO 74.7¢Risks 74.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +74.70u · ICON −74.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:07+00:00	13.3%	17.1%	35.4%	35.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	13.3%	17.7%	35.4%	35.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	13.3%	17.7%	35.4%	35.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	13.3%	17.7%	46.8%	35.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	13.3%	17.7%	46.8%	35.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	13.3%	17.7%	46.8%	35.9%	29.0%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	12.4%	17.7%	46.8%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	12.4%	17.7%	46.8%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	12.4%	17.7%	46.8%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	12.4%	17.7%	46.8%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	12.4%	17.7%	46.8%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	12.4%	17.7%	35.4%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	12.4%	17.7%	35.4%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	12.4%	17.7%	35.4%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	12.0%	17.7%	35.4%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	12.0%	17.7%	35.4%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	12.0%	17.7%	35.4%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	12.0%	17.7%	35.4%	40.5%	31.1%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	14.0%	22.0%	28.6%	36.8%	17.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	14.0%	22.0%	28.6%	36.8%	17.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	14.0%	22.0%	33.8%	36.8%	17.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	14.0%	22.0%	33.8%	36.8%	17.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	14.0%	22.0%	33.8%	36.8%	17.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	11.3%	22.0%	33.8%	36.8%	9.3%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	11.3%	22.0%	33.8%	36.8%	9.3%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	11.3%	22.0%	33.8%	36.8%	9.3%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	11.3%	22.0%	33.8%	36.8%	9.3%
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00	11.3%	21.8%	34.9%	41.3%	9.3%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	11.3%	21.8%	34.9%	41.3%	9.3%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	11.3%	21.8%	34.9%	41.3%	9.3%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	11.3%	21.8%	34.9%	41.3%	9.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	73.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	70.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	69.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗