KBIL / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

41%

35%

22%

11%

10%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 25.6¢Risks 25.55u

ICONNO 74.4¢Risks 74.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +74.45u · ICON −74.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	2.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	1.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	2.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	28.0%	—	—	1.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	26.2%	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	0.0%	5.4%	—	—	7.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	8.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.9%	10.5%	0.0%	—	8.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	52.2%	37.1%	5.1%	—	12.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	7.6%	0.5%	7.3%	—	13.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	50.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	17.9%	61.8%	14.9%	—	31.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	78.2%	—	—	33.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	45.8%	75.5%	23.2%	—	32.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.3%	58.5%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.4%	16.7%	49.1%	14.1%	—	26.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	11.2%	53.6%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	17.2%	53.7%	25.1%	—	26.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	77.6%	57.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	20.3%	49.0%	16.5%	—	36.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.7%	66.5%	34.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	12.8%	42.8%	26.8%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	72.1%	52.1%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	11.4%	61.8%	16.2%	37.1%	35.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	75.1%	0.0%	—	37.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	56%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	73.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	35%	73.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	73.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	22%	70.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	11%	69.6°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	10%	69.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261022-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 75°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗