KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

98%

96%

92%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 95.3¢Risks 23.84u

HRESNO 4.6¢Risks 1.16u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.16u · HRES −1.16u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:42:31+00:00	45.8%	79.0%	57.0%	74.2%	48.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:29+00:00	45.8%	79.0%	60.1%	74.2%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:40+00:00	45.8%	79.0%	60.1%	74.2%	48.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:50+00:00	45.8%	79.0%	60.1%	74.2%	48.8%
2026-10-17T07:45:01+00:00	96.9%	79.0%	60.1%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:47+00:00	96.9%	79.0%	60.1%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:44+00:00	96.9%	79.0%	60.1%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:51+00:00	96.9%	79.0%	60.1%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	96.9%	79.0%	60.1%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:15+00:00	96.9%	97.0%	97.9%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	96.9%	97.0%	97.9%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:35+00:00	96.9%	97.0%	97.9%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:57+00:00	94.6%	97.0%	97.9%	88.1%	48.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	94.6%	96.9%	97.9%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T15:25:16+00:00	94.6%	97.1%	97.9%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	94.6%	97.1%	97.9%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:43+00:00	94.6%	97.1%	86.7%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	94.6%	97.1%	86.7%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:59+00:00	94.6%	97.1%	86.7%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:06+00:00	94.6%	97.1%	86.7%	88.4%	48.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:17+00:00	93.8%	97.1%	86.7%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:33+00:00	93.8%	97.1%	86.7%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:40+00:00	93.8%	97.1%	86.7%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:56+00:00	93.8%	97.1%	86.7%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:06+00:00	93.8%	97.1%	94.3%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:15+00:00	93.8%	97.1%	94.3%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:28+00:00	93.8%	97.1%	94.3%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:57+00:00	93.8%	97.1%	94.3%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	95.5%	97.1%	94.3%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:24+00:00	95.5%	97.1%	94.3%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	95.5%	97.1%	94.3%	81.8%	96.1%
2026-10-19T15:13:52+00:00	98.3%	99.1%	99.9%	98.0%	95.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	98.3%	99.1%	99.9%	98.0%	95.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:22+00:00	98.3%	99.1%	99.9%	98.0%	95.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:34+00:00	98.3%	99.1%	99.7%	98.0%	95.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:41+00:00	98.3%	99.1%	99.7%	98.0%	95.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:16+00:00	98.3%	99.1%	99.7%	98.0%	95.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:32+00:00	88.9%	99.1%	99.7%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	88.9%	99.1%	99.7%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:55+00:00	88.9%	99.1%	99.7%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:04+00:00	88.9%	99.1%	99.7%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	88.9%	99.1%	99.7%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	88.9%	99.1%	97.8%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:08+00:00	88.9%	99.1%	97.8%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	88.9%	99.1%	97.8%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	96.2%	99.1%	97.8%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:59+00:00	96.2%	99.1%	97.8%	91.6%	97.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:07+00:00	96.2%	99.1%	97.8%	91.6%	97.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	70.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	68.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	66.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	65.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	58.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗