KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

98%

98%

96%

92%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 95.3¢Risks 23.84u

HRESNO 4.6¢Risks 1.16u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +1.16u · HRES −1.16u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	—	—	—	53.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	15.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	38.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	—	13.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	25.9%	—	67.6%	—	—	47.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	—	—	—	71.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	3.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	52.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	18.0%	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	48.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	26.5%	58.7%	—	—	61.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	59.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	19.4%	21.4%	31.1%	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.4%	—	52.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.5%	23.7%	58.0%	62.9%	—	93.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	51.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	78.9%	95.6%	76.6%	73.6%	—	83.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	84.5%	—	61.5%	—	—	65.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	21.2%	52.4%	71.9%	—	67.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	83.2%	—	59.7%	—	—	75.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	87.1%	60.7%	98.1%	50.8%	—	55.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	88.9%	43.2%	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	92.0%	54.4%	77.9%	—	83.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	91.2%	93.7%	99.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	65.3%	97.0%	99.2%	79.7%	—	69.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	85.2%	98.3%	99.6%	—	—	96.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	72.1%	97.1%	98.6%	98.2%	92.8%	84.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	99.6%	—	—	73.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	70.6°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	98%	68.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	66.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	66.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	92%	65.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 14:00	Pending
National Blend	47%	58.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 17 · 04:42 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 59°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗