KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

92%

88%

81%

60%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 76.6¢Risks 76.65u

AIFSNO 23.4¢Risks 23.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +23.35u · AIFS −23.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:07+00:00	74.8%	85.2%	86.3%	8.1%	15.2%
2026-10-18T15:41:38+00:00	74.8%	86.2%	86.3%	8.1%	15.2%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	74.8%	86.2%	86.3%	8.1%	15.2%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	74.8%	86.2%	92.8%	8.1%	15.2%
2026-10-18T17:57:34+00:00	74.8%	86.2%	92.8%	8.1%	15.2%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	74.8%	86.2%	92.8%	8.1%	15.2%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	79.6%	86.2%	92.8%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	79.6%	86.2%	92.8%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	79.6%	86.2%	92.8%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	79.6%	86.2%	92.8%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	79.6%	86.2%	92.8%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:44+00:00	79.6%	86.2%	87.4%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	79.6%	86.2%	87.4%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	79.6%	86.2%	87.4%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	81.3%	86.2%	87.4%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	81.3%	86.2%	87.4%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	81.3%	86.2%	87.4%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	81.3%	86.2%	87.4%	5.8%	43.5%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	75.1%	91.7%	74.9%	64.8%	83.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	75.1%	91.7%	74.9%	64.8%	83.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	75.1%	91.7%	94.1%	64.8%	83.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	75.1%	91.7%	94.1%	64.8%	83.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	75.1%	91.7%	94.1%	64.8%	83.8%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	60.2%	91.7%	94.1%	64.8%	81.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	60.2%	91.7%	94.1%	64.8%	81.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	60.2%	91.7%	94.1%	64.8%	81.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	60.2%	91.7%	94.1%	64.8%	81.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00	60.2%	92.4%	87.7%	93.1%	81.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	60.2%	92.4%	87.7%	93.1%	81.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	60.2%	92.4%	87.7%	93.1%	81.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	60.2%	92.4%	87.7%	93.1%	81.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	70.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	92%	70.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	88%	67.4°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	67.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	64.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	35%	61.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗