KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST78%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

93%

93%

81%

80%

53%

Consensus

78%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 73.0¢Risks 72.95u

AIFSNO 27.0¢Risks 27.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +27.05u · AIFS −27.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	31.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	19.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	3.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	39.0%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	18.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	42.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	11.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	4.2%	—	—	23.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	6.8%	7.0%	26.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	26.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.1%	4.0%	4.7%	8.5%	—	23.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	20.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	57.3%	5.1%	23.7%	27.9%	—	71.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	18.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.9%	77.2%	40.9%	37.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	24.7%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	57.1%	3.6%	17.4%	33.7%	—	28.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	21.8%	—	—	36.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	21.9%	84.8%	15.2%	—	18.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	10.7%	19.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	62.1%	16.1%	37.1%	—	45.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	65.8%	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	22.3%	76.3%	89.8%	37.3%	—	25.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	44.3%	82.3%	92.3%	—	—	73.2%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	26.3%	75.3%	83.5%	81.0%	59.6%	42.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	—	92.4%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	98.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	93%	70.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	93%	70.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	81%	67.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	80%	66.3°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	53%	63.8°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	61.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 64°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗