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KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
76%
WN2
73%
AIFS
60%
ICON
9%
HRES
4%
Consensus
42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 39.8¢Risks 39.80u
VS
HRESNO 60.2¢Risks 60.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.20u · HRES −60.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 65.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00AIFS Single: 70.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 60.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.5% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 75.5% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 53.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 72.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 44.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 4.1% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 78.3% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:43+00:0065.8%76.5%53.4%44.0%78.3%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0065.8%76.5%76.0%44.0%78.3%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0065.8%76.5%76.0%44.0%78.3%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0065.8%76.5%76.0%44.0%78.3%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0065.8%76.5%76.0%44.0%78.3%
2026-10-18T08:01:48+00:0070.0%76.5%76.0%4.1%8.8%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0070.0%76.5%76.0%4.1%8.8%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0070.0%76.5%76.0%4.1%8.8%
2026-10-18T10:17:29+00:0070.0%76.5%76.0%4.1%8.8%
2026-10-18T11:03:00+00:0070.0%76.0%72.8%4.1%8.8%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0070.0%76.0%72.8%4.1%8.8%
2026-10-18T12:33:55+00:0070.0%76.0%72.8%4.1%8.8%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0070.0%76.0%72.8%4.1%8.8%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0060.4%75.5%72.8%4.1%8.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble76%69.4°F5.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 273%68.0°F4.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single60%66.8°F5.0°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast54%66.0°F5.2°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
National Blend37%63.0°F7.7°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON9%57.2°F6.1°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS HRES4%55.4°F5.8°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗