KBIL / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST42%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

76%

73%

60%

Consensus

42%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 39.8¢Risks 39.80u

HRESNO 60.2¢Risks 60.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +60.20u · HRES −60.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	28.3%	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	11.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	6.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	14.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	11.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	3.5%	16.7%	—	—	18.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	16.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.3%	1.8%	2.1%	4.2%	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	11.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.7%	2.3%	14.0%	17.0%	—	58.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	29.6%	64.2%	27.0%	23.9%	—	35.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	14.1%	—	—	16.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	1.4%	9.0%	20.6%	—	16.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	11.8%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	11.6%	72.8%	7.4%	—	9.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	4.7%	9.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	44.8%	7.7%	22.1%	—	29.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	48.2%	90.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	60.0%	79.1%	21.6%	—	13.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	67.4%	82.9%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	57.7%	68.7%	65.2%	40.4%	24.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	82.3%	—	—	13.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	76%	69.4°F	5.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	73%	68.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	66.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	63.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	9%	57.2°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	4%	55.4°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261023-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 66°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗