KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

51%

36%

34%

11%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.8¢Risks 40.85u

WN2NO 59.2¢Risks 59.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.15u · WN2 −59.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:31:28+00:00	47.2%	50.5%	24.1%	99.3%	27.1%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	47.2%	50.5%	20.0%	99.3%	27.1%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	47.2%	50.5%	20.0%	99.3%	27.1%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	47.2%	50.5%	20.0%	99.3%	27.1%
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00	25.3%	50.5%	20.0%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	25.3%	50.5%	20.0%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	25.3%	50.5%	20.0%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	25.3%	50.5%	20.0%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00	25.3%	50.5%	20.0%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T11:21:16+00:00	25.3%	43.5%	14.2%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T12:06:39+00:00	25.3%	43.5%	14.2%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T12:51:52+00:00	25.3%	43.5%	14.2%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	18.7%	43.5%	14.2%	73.3%	52.8%
2026-10-19T14:28:04+00:00	18.7%	43.5%	14.2%	73.3%	52.2%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00	24.1%	42.2%	10.7%	37.5%	91.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	24.1%	42.2%	10.7%	37.5%	91.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00	24.1%	42.2%	10.3%	37.5%	91.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	24.1%	42.2%	10.3%	37.5%	91.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	24.1%	42.2%	10.3%	37.5%	91.3%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00	33.5%	42.2%	10.3%	37.5%	70.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	33.5%	42.2%	10.3%	37.5%	70.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	33.5%	42.2%	10.3%	37.5%	70.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	33.5%	42.2%	10.3%	37.5%	70.6%
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00	33.5%	36.0%	11.2%	50.7%	70.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00	33.5%	36.0%	11.2%	50.7%	70.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	33.5%	36.0%	11.2%	50.7%	70.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	33.5%	36.0%	11.2%	50.7%	70.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:25+00:00	33.5%	36.0%	11.1%	50.7%	70.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	57.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	54.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	52.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	51.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	52.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	49.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗