KBIL / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 55°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

51%

36%

34%

11%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 40.8¢Risks 40.85u

WN2NO 59.2¢Risks 59.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +59.15u · WN2 −59.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.2%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	39.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	2.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	47.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	2.2%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.2%	—	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	22.6%	—	83.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	13.5%	0.9%	91.8%	—	—	68.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	71.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	3.0%	66.4%	2.2%	—	64.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	8.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	27.9%	94.1%	62.9%	—	55.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	87.8%	9.7%	22.2%	—	60.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	5.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	54.8%	1.1%	26.1%	92.8%	19.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	0.5%	—	—	37.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	71%	57.8°F	6.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	55.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	51%	54.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	37%	52.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	51.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	34%	52.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	11%	49.5°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 55°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261025-TMAX-GE55
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 55°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗