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KBIL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
78%
EPS
46%
AIFS
35%
WN2
28%
HRES
28%
Consensus
43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 52.8¢Risks 52.85u
VS
HRESNO 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.15u · HRES −47.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 82.2% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00AIFS Single: 34.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 61.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 45.5% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 14.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 39.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 31.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 28.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00IFS HRES: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00IFS HRES: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 61.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 26.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00ICON: 61.4% · 2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00ICON: 78.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0010-19 07:3310-20 07:0610-20 13:10
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T07:33:44+00:0082.2%65.8%14.1%96.4%26.8%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:0082.2%65.8%14.1%96.4%26.8%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0082.2%65.8%14.1%96.4%26.8%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0082.2%65.8%14.1%96.4%26.8%
2026-10-19T10:35:25+00:0082.2%65.8%14.1%96.4%26.8%
2026-10-20T04:05:38+00:0039.0%61.7%39.2%61.0%61.4%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:0039.0%61.7%39.2%61.0%61.4%
2026-10-20T05:36:35+00:0039.0%61.7%31.2%61.0%61.4%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:0039.0%61.7%31.2%61.0%61.4%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:0039.0%61.7%31.2%61.0%61.4%
2026-10-20T07:52:01+00:0034.9%61.7%31.2%61.0%78.0%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:0034.9%61.7%31.2%61.0%78.0%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:0034.9%61.7%31.2%61.0%78.0%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:0034.9%61.7%31.2%61.0%78.0%
2026-10-20T10:54:12+00:0034.9%45.5%28.2%27.7%78.0%
2026-10-20T11:39:47+00:0034.9%45.5%28.2%27.7%78.0%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:0034.9%45.5%28.2%27.7%78.0%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:0034.9%45.5%28.2%27.7%78.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON78%56.0°F7.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%51.0°F5.9°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
National Blend48%50.0°F8.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble46%49.3°F10.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single35%48.4°F5.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 228%47.8°F4.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES28%46.6°F6.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261026-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 51°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗