KBIL / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Billings, MTHigh ≥ 51°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST43%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

78%

46%

35%

28%

28%

Consensus

43%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 52.8¢Risks 52.85u

HRESNO 47.2¢Risks 47.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +47.15u · HRES −47.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	82.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	90.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	97.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	67.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	70.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	75.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	96.8%	—	—	79.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	46.9%	—	—	75.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	66.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	71.6%	—	4.6%	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	69.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	3.4%	20.8%	—	—	74.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	38.2%	67.7%	2.2%	—	57.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	63.6%	7.6%	2.1%	22.1%	50.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	2.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	78%	56.0°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	51.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	48%	50.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	46%	49.3°F	10.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	48.4°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	28%	47.8°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	28%	46.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 51°F · KBIL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBIL-20261026-TMAX-GE51
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Billings high ≥ 51°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗