KBNA / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

72%

69%

67%

63%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.0¢Risks 36.52u

ICONNO 27.0¢Risks 13.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.48u · ICON −13.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00	71.7%	67.8%	73.3%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00	71.7%	67.8%	73.3%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	71.7%	67.8%	73.3%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00	71.7%	67.8%	73.3%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00	71.7%	67.8%	73.3%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00	71.7%	69.2%	73.3%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00	71.7%	69.2%	73.3%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00	71.7%	69.2%	63.9%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00	71.7%	69.2%	63.9%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	71.7%	69.2%	63.9%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	71.7%	69.2%	63.9%	74.1%	66.4%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	70.0%	69.2%	63.9%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	70.0%	69.2%	63.9%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	70.0%	69.2%	63.9%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	70.0%	69.2%	63.9%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	70.0%	69.2%	71.3%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	70.0%	69.2%	71.3%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	70.0%	69.2%	71.3%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	72.5%	69.2%	71.3%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	72.5%	69.2%	71.3%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	72.5%	69.2%	71.3%	69.1%	63.3%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	72.5%	69.2%	71.3%	67.4%	63.3%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	72.5%	69.2%	71.3%	67.4%	63.3%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	72.5%	69.2%	82.8%	67.4%	63.3%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	72.5%	69.2%	82.8%	67.4%	63.3%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	72.5%	69.2%	82.8%	67.4%	63.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	89%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	81%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	75%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	63%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260908-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗