KBNA / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

72%

69%

67%

63%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 73.0¢Risks 36.52u

ICONNO 27.0¢Risks 13.48u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +13.48u · ICON −13.48u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	70.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	51.7%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	20.5%	—	—	57.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	19.3%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	9.8%	—	—	73.9%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	25.7%	—	—	72.2%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	48.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	82.0%	—	—	70.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	96.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	78.6%	68.9%	—	77.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	39.4%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	—	77.4%	50.7%	—	75.7%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	40.4%	—	86.1%	—	—	6.9%
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	79.5%	78.9%	—	76.6%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	78.9%	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	84.6%	88.1%	60.3%	—	75.8%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	53.3%	67.4%	—	—	81.0%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	76.2%	80.5%	69.2%	—	79.9%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	29.6%	63.4%	79.2%	—	—	80.5%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	82.8%	79.8%	43.0%	—	81.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	34.2%	78.5%	71.3%	—	—	77.1%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	34.7%	80.4%	76.3%	60.9%	—	71.8%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.8%	76.9%	80.4%	—	—	74.7%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.6%	76.8%	78.2%	48.0%	—	75.3%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	36.3%	68.3%	71.8%	—	—	73.5%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	36.9%	73.2%	82.4%	51.0%	—	65.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	78.0%	78.0%	—	—	69.3%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	79.4%	78.7%	44.5%	—	73.6%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	81.7%	47.8%	0.1%	—	71.4%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	84.0%	68.0%	30.0%	72.0%	64.8%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.3%	80.9%	65.3%	47.6%	—	65.3%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	82.6%	78.3%	34.2%	58.7%	61.1%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	28.0%	78.1%	79.1%	38.5%	—	65.1%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	81.8%	55.4%	15.7%	69.3%	56.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	87.5%	75.8%	20.1%	—	48.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.8%	80.9%	42.8%	29.3%	21.2%	54.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	76.4%	44.0%	19.2%	—	44.0%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	59.4%	43.7%	20.3%	0.6%	40.6%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	75.9%	85.0%	59.8%	—	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	89%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	83%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	81%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	75%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	72%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	67%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	63%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260908-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗