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KBNA / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Sep 07 · 14:51 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
64%
AIFS
63%
WN2
63%
ICON
56%
EPS
53%
Consensus
65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 58.5¢Risks 29.23u
VS
EPSNO 41.5¢Risks 20.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.77u · EPS −20.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00AIFS Single: 63.1% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.1% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 62.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00IFS HRES: 63.8% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00IFS HRES: 63.8% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00IFS HRES: 63.8% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00IFS HRES: 63.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00IFS HRES: 63.8% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00ICON: 55.6% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:0009-07 14:0309-07 14:2709-07 14:51
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:0063.1%53.1%62.8%63.8%55.6%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:0063.1%53.1%62.8%63.8%55.6%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:0063.1%53.1%62.8%63.8%55.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:0063.1%53.1%62.8%63.8%55.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:0063.1%53.1%62.8%63.8%55.6%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
RRFS77%——Not retainedPending
National Blend74%——Not retainedPending
IFS HRES64%——Not retainedPending
AIFS Single63%——Not retainedPending
WeatherNext 263%——Not retainedPending
NWS forecast57%——Not retainedPending
ICON56%——Not retainedPending
IFS Ensemble53%——Not retainedPending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260908-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗