KBNA / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST65%Sep 07 · 14:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

63%

63%

56%

53%

Consensus

65%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.5¢Risks 29.23u

EPSNO 41.5¢Risks 20.77u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.77u · EPS −20.77u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	61.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	55.9%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	61.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	43.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	16.6%	—	—	51.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	7.4%	—	—	68.7%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	19.8%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	20.7%	—	—	66.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	77.2%	—	—	64.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	24.1%	—	73.1%	62.4%	—	72.0%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	39.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	71.5%	43.4%	—	69.6%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	81.6%	—	—	4.8%
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	73.6%	73.0%	—	70.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	34.8%	—	72.8%	—	—	57.0%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	79.4%	83.7%	52.4%	—	69.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	31.2%	45.1%	59.7%	—	—	75.0%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	69.2%	74.2%	61.5%	—	73.5%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	55.1%	72.6%	—	—	74.0%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.9%	76.6%	73.1%	34.6%	—	74.5%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	71.3%	63.2%	—	—	69.8%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	26.6%	73.4%	68.6%	51.8%	—	63.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	69.1%	73.2%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	68.7%	70.4%	38.5%	—	67.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	58.9%	62.8%	—	—	64.7%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.6%	64.1%	74.9%	40.8%	—	55.1%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	69.3%	69.3%	—	—	59.5%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	70.8%	69.9%	34.1%	—	63.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.1%	73.3%	36.7%	0.0%	—	61.1%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	75.8%	57.0%	20.7%	61.5%	53.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	18.3%	71.7%	53.6%	35.9%	—	53.6%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	73.4%	68.0%	23.6%	46.3%	48.8%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	67.5%	68.7%	26.9%	—	52.6%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.7%	71.6%	42.0%	8.9%	56.7%	43.3%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	78.9%	63.7%	11.8%	—	35.0%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	69.5%	29.3%	18.2%	12.2%	40.0%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	12.0%	63.3%	29.8%	10.5%	—	29.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	16.1%	43.7%	29.0%	11.0%	0.2%	26.3%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	61.4%	73.3%	43.4%	—	45.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
RRFS	77%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	74%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	56%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260908-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗