KBNA / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

45%

36%

31%

26%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

EPSNO 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.00u · EPS −61.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00	44.3%	25.6%	39.5%	40.7%	33.6%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00	44.3%	25.6%	39.5%	40.7%	33.6%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00	44.3%	25.6%	29.7%	40.7%	33.6%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00	44.3%	25.6%	29.7%	40.7%	33.6%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	44.3%	25.6%	29.7%	40.7%	33.6%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	44.3%	25.6%	29.7%	40.7%	33.6%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	42.4%	25.6%	29.7%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	42.4%	25.6%	29.7%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	42.4%	25.6%	29.7%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	42.4%	25.6%	29.7%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	42.4%	25.6%	37.2%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	42.4%	25.6%	37.2%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	42.4%	25.6%	37.2%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	45.3%	25.6%	37.2%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	45.3%	25.6%	37.2%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	45.3%	25.6%	37.2%	35.1%	30.6%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	45.2%	25.6%	37.2%	36.5%	30.6%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	45.2%	25.6%	37.2%	36.5%	30.6%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	45.2%	25.6%	52.4%	36.5%	30.6%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	45.2%	25.6%	52.4%	36.5%	30.6%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	45.2%	25.6%	52.4%	36.5%	30.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	43%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	39%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	31%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260908-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗