KBNA / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Sep 08 · 06:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

45%

36%

31%

26%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 39.0¢Risks 39.00u

EPSNO 61.0¢Risks 61.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +61.00u · EPS −61.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	10.3%	—	—	39.6%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	9.4%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	4.0%	—	—	57.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	12.7%	—	—	53.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	65.8%	—	—	51.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	89.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	—	60.4%	48.6%	—	59.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	20.9%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	58.0%	29.7%	—	55.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	21.0%	—	70.0%	—	—	2.1%
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	59.8%	59.1%	—	56.1%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	58.5%	—	—	41.5%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	66.3%	71.9%	36.7%	—	54.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	29.7%	43.5%	—	—	60.5%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	53.3%	59.1%	45.0%	—	58.3%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	38.2%	56.8%	—	—	58.5%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	16.7%	61.3%	57.0%	20.2%	—	58.7%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	54.5%	45.5%	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	56.4%	50.9%	33.9%	—	45.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	50.9%	55.7%	—	—	48.1%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	14.2%	50.0%	51.9%	21.8%	—	48.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	39.1%	43.0%	—	—	45.0%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	43.9%	56.1%	22.7%	—	34.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	48.9%	48.9%	—	—	38.5%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.9%	50.0%	48.9%	16.9%	—	42.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	9.7%	52.2%	18.3%	0.0%	—	38.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	54.6%	34.1%	8.1%	38.5%	31.0%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	48.8%	30.4%	16.7%	—	30.4%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	4.9%	50.0%	43.8%	8.9%	23.6%	25.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	42.3%	43.6%	10.3%	—	28.0%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	46.0%	19.1%	2.2%	30.7%	20.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	54.2%	36.3%	3.0%	—	13.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	41.4%	10.2%	5.1%	2.9%	16.3%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	33.8%	9.9%	2.2%	—	9.9%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.7%	17.1%	8.9%	2.2%	0.0%	7.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	29.5%	41.8%	16.0%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	57%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	43%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
RRFS	39%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	31%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260908-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 15:36 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 93°F · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗