KBNA / Tue Sep 8 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 94°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST19%Sep 07 · 14:51 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

35%

30%

29%

24%

14%

Consensus

19%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 24.6¢Risks 24.55u

EPSNO 75.4¢Risks 75.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +75.45u · EPS −75.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	45.8%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	40.0%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	—	—	—	44.9%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	7.9%	—	—	34.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	—	7.1%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	2.9%	—	—	51.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	49.4%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	9.6%	—	—	47.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	59.4%	—	—	44.6%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	86.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	53.5%	41.6%	—	52.1%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	20.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	—	50.7%	23.7%	—	48.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	63.2%	—	—	1.3%
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	52.3%	51.5%	—	48.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	50.8%	—	—	34.1%
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	58.7%	64.8%	29.5%	—	46.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	23.1%	35.6%	—	—	52.4%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	45.0%	50.8%	36.9%	—	50.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	8.2%	30.3%	48.3%	—	—	50.0%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	52.6%	48.2%	14.6%	—	50.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	45.5%	36.8%	—	—	43.7%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	47.2%	41.8%	25.9%	—	36.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	41.5%	46.2%	—	—	38.8%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.4%	40.4%	42.3%	15.3%	—	38.5%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	29.9%	33.5%	—	—	35.3%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	34.0%	45.9%	15.7%	—	25.9%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	38.5%	38.5%	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	39.2%	38.2%	10.9%	—	32.1%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	41.0%	11.8%	0.0%	—	28.6%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	43.0%	24.2%	4.5%	28.0%	21.5%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	37.0%	20.8%	10.2%	—	20.8%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	37.7%	32.0%	4.9%	15.1%	16.6%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.0%	30.2%	31.4%	5.6%	—	18.2%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	33.1%	11.3%	0.9%	20.0%	12.0%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	40.3%	24.2%	1.3%	—	7.6%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	28.0%	5.1%	2.3%	1.2%	8.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	21.3%	4.8%	0.9%	—	4.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	8.9%	4.1%	0.8%	0.0%	3.4%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	17.0%	26.7%	7.9%	—	8.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
RRFS	41%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
AIFS Single	35%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
WeatherNext 2	29%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
ICON	24%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
National Blend	23%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
NWS forecast	20%	—	—	Not retained	Pending
IFS Ensemble	14%	—	—	Not retained	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 94°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260908-TMAX-GE94
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 94°F+ · Tue Sep 8

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗