KBNA / Wed Sep 9 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Sep 09 · 06:52 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

94%

90%

88%

87%

83%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 88.8¢Risks 44.38u

ICONNO 11.3¢Risks 5.63u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +5.63u · ICON −5.63u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	14.6%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	61.0%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	76.2%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	—	—	—	—	69.7%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	79.0%	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	79.4%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	40.8%	—	13.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	70.4%	—	—	79.4%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	94.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	90.7%	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	92.8%	—	—	82.0%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	94.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	63.8%	—	88.5%	62.4%	—	83.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	64.0%	—	88.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	52.2%	92.1%	55.1%	—	86.5%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	85.3%	—	—	13.1%
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	57.6%	36.5%	97.1%	84.5%	—	89.7%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	52.3%	—	95.2%	—	—	81.6%
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	57.9%	90.3%	94.3%	66.3%	—	88.1%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	52.4%	37.2%	91.5%	—	—	85.6%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	88.4%	95.9%	70.0%	—	83.2%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	51.7%	61.8%	85.8%	—	—	85.3%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	85.4%	88.2%	84.4%	—	84.9%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	49.1%	77.1%	92.2%	—	—	82.8%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.5%	79.1%	91.4%	49.1%	—	82.8%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	81.0%	87.8%	—	—	86.3%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	87.4%	92.1%	41.3%	—	86.9%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	80.3%	81.7%	—	—	84.2%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	53.1%	64.1%	85.5%	32.1%	—	82.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	61.5%	84.4%	—	—	80.2%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	89.1%	81.0%	31.1%	—	81.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	86.5%	76.0%	0.1%	—	85.9%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	92.4%	62.6%	66.9%	78.5%	81.7%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.9%	91.3%	91.3%	59.5%	—	80.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	94.1%	81.8%	65.8%	59.9%	82.6%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	94.4%	91.8%	68.7%	—	81.8%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	61.9%	95.0%	94.3%	78.0%	61.9%	83.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	96.5%	94.2%	70.0%	—	80.9%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	97.1%	91.6%	70.7%	65.5%	90.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	96.8%	98.7%	66.2%	—	67.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	73.7%	94.3%	94.3%	68.3%	88.3%	71.0%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	97.4%	95.5%	80.8%	—	84.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	98%	94.0°F	2.2°F	2026-09-09 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	97%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-09 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	94%	95.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	90%	93.9°F	3.4°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	94.3°F	4.2°F	2026-09-08 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	87%	92.5°F	2.7°F	2026-09-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	83%	92.9°F	3.5°F	2026-09-08 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260909-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Wed Sep 9

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗