KBNA / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST95%Sep 10 · 06:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

88%

88%

85%

85%

Consensus

95%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	32.9%	—	—	—	—	74.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	—	—	—	72.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	—	—	—	79.1%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	83.9%	—	—	83.9%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	61.2%	—	—	85.8%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	60.3%	—	88.0%	—	—	84.4%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	63.3%	—	96.1%	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	99.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	99.3%	59.7%	—	91.8%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	99.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	92.4%	97.6%	69.6%	—	93.4%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	—	83.5%	—	—	16.0%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	90.0%	72.4%	84.0%	—	87.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	98.1%	—	—	12.8%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	44.4%	94.1%	95.2%	74.5%	—	91.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	36.4%	50.0%	—	—	82.1%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	89.9%	36.9%	64.7%	—	92.3%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	23.3%	59.3%	48.3%	—	—	82.2%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.2%	84.9%	90.3%	55.2%	—	86.4%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	68.2%	72.9%	—	—	87.9%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	65.3%	73.4%	47.2%	—	83.4%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	55.7%	28.4%	24.6%	—	—	79.7%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	44.2%	93.2%	54.9%	—	87.9%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	53.0%	63.7%	92.7%	—	—	90.4%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	59.2%	93.3%	96.8%	53.1%	31.2%	85.5%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	89.9%	94.8%	—	—	88.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	95.5%	97.6%	64.9%	19.8%	91.9%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	65.4%	95.8%	98.9%	0.5%	—	91.3%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	97.5%	96.7%	59.2%	19.9%	91.5%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	66.4%	97.5%	97.5%	61.9%	—	91.8%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	98.2%	88.2%	53.7%	24.6%	92.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	98.4%	97.6%	41.0%	—	86.5%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	98.4%	47.3%	56.7%	47.3%	85.1%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.8%	97.9%	91.9%	35.0%	—	92.4%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	41.4%	98.4%	96.3%	82.8%	82.8%	86.2%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	94.0%	93.5%	83.8%	—	67.5%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.6%	97.1%	96.9%	75.0%	75.0%	68.3%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	96.3%	95.1%	67.6%	—	61.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	98%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
National Blend	91%	94.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	89%	93.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	88%	92.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	88%	93.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	85%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	85%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗