KBNA / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 10 · 06:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

63%

63%

56%

53%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.7¢Risks 29.35u

EPSNO 41.3¢Risks 20.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.65u · EPS −20.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00	62.2%	75.1%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00	62.2%	75.1%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00	62.2%	75.1%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00	62.2%	75.1%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00	62.2%	76.4%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00	62.2%	76.4%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00	62.2%	76.4%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00	62.2%	76.4%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00	62.2%	76.4%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00	62.2%	76.4%	42.4%	87.9%	19.6%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00	67.2%	76.4%	42.4%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00	67.2%	76.4%	42.4%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00	67.2%	76.4%	42.4%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00	67.2%	76.4%	42.4%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00	67.2%	76.4%	47.8%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00	67.2%	76.4%	47.8%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00	67.2%	76.4%	47.8%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00	64.7%	76.4%	47.8%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00	64.7%	76.4%	47.8%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00	64.7%	76.4%	47.8%	82.9%	79.0%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00	64.7%	76.4%	47.8%	80.4%	79.0%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00	64.7%	76.4%	47.8%	80.4%	79.0%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00	64.7%	76.4%	57.6%	80.4%	79.0%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00	64.7%	76.4%	57.6%	80.4%	79.0%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00	64.7%	76.4%	57.6%	80.4%	79.0%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00	67.1%	76.4%	57.6%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00	67.1%	76.4%	57.6%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00	67.1%	76.4%	57.6%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00	67.1%	76.4%	57.6%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00	67.1%	76.7%	57.6%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00	67.1%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00	67.1%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00	67.1%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.1%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	53.4%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	48.9%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	48.9%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	48.9%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00	72.0%	76.7%	48.9%	89.4%	77.0%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00	73.5%	76.7%	48.9%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00	73.5%	76.7%	48.9%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00	73.5%	76.7%	48.9%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00	73.5%	76.7%	48.9%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00	73.5%	76.7%	48.9%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00	73.5%	76.7%	46.6%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00	73.5%	76.7%	46.6%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00	73.5%	76.7%	46.6%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00	71.2%	76.7%	46.6%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00	71.2%	76.7%	46.6%	83.7%	81.1%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00	71.2%	75.5%	46.6%	83.7%	81.0%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00	71.2%	75.5%	46.6%	83.7%	81.0%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00	71.2%	75.5%	46.6%	83.7%	81.0%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00	71.2%	75.5%	64.5%	83.7%	81.0%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00	71.2%	75.5%	64.5%	83.7%	81.0%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00	71.2%	75.5%	64.5%	83.7%	81.0%
2026-09-09T07:37:19+00:00	66.7%	75.5%	64.5%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T08:22:30+00:00	66.7%	75.5%	64.5%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T09:07:34+00:00	66.7%	75.5%	64.5%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T09:52:38+00:00	66.7%	75.5%	64.5%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T10:37:42+00:00	66.7%	75.5%	64.5%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T11:22:47+00:00	66.7%	75.5%	54.7%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T12:07:54+00:00	66.7%	75.5%	54.7%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T12:52:59+00:00	66.7%	75.5%	54.7%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T13:38:04+00:00	65.8%	75.5%	54.7%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T14:23:19+00:00	65.8%	75.5%	54.7%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	65.8%	73.8%	54.7%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	65.8%	73.8%	54.7%	72.0%	73.2%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	65.8%	73.8%	54.7%	72.0%	70.4%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	65.8%	73.8%	44.1%	72.0%	70.4%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	65.8%	73.8%	44.1%	72.0%	70.4%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	65.8%	73.8%	44.1%	72.0%	70.4%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	53.8%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	53.8%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	53.8%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	53.8%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	53.8%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	53.8%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	53.8%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	53.8%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	63.1%	73.8%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	63.1%	53.0%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-10T03:10:10+00:00	63.1%	53.0%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-10T03:55:19+00:00	63.1%	53.0%	44.1%	64.4%	70.4%
2026-09-10T04:40:24+00:00	63.1%	53.0%	44.1%	64.4%	55.9%
2026-09-10T05:25:30+00:00	63.1%	53.0%	62.8%	64.4%	55.9%
2026-09-10T06:10:36+00:00	63.1%	53.0%	62.8%	64.4%	55.9%
2026-09-10T06:55:41+00:00	63.1%	53.0%	62.8%	64.4%	55.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	81%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	94.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	93.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	93.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	92.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗