KBNA / Thu Sep 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 93°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST68%Sep 10 · 06:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

63%

63%

56%

53%

Consensus

68%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 58.7¢Risks 29.35u

EPSNO 41.3¢Risks 20.65u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +20.65u · EPS −20.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	46.8%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	57.7%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	—	—	—	—	64.3%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	44.6%	—	70.3%	—	—	70.3%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	91.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	42.5%	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	91.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	75.4%	—	—	69.9%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	92.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	—	89.5%	—	—	78.7%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	55.5%	—	96.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	97.3%	38.9%	—	80.6%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	98.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	29.1%	81.1%	92.4%	48.5%	—	83.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	66.0%	—	—	6.0%
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	30.3%	76.1%	50.8%	66.3%	—	71.1%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	93.1%	—	—	4.3%
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	83.2%	85.5%	52.4%	—	77.0%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	16.8%	27.0%	—	—	62.1%
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	5.6%	74.2%	16.8%	40.1%	—	78.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	8.5%	34.2%	24.6%	—	—	61.0%
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	64.6%	73.8%	29.9%	—	67.0%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	42.0%	47.3%	—	—	69.0%
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	7.0%	38.2%	47.2%	22.3%	—	60.9%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	10.0%	8.1%	—	—	54.7%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	19.0%	77.5%	27.1%	—	67.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	34.4%	75.9%	—	—	70.9%
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	76.5%	86.1%	24.3%	10.3%	61.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	26.2%	68.4%	79.5%	—	—	66.5%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	81.0%	87.5%	33.1%	4.7%	71.8%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	81.0%	92.5%	0.0%	—	69.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	34.1%	86.0%	83.2%	26.0%	4.2%	69.0%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	85.5%	85.5%	27.3%	—	68.5%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	87.6%	59.9%	19.9%	5.2%	68.0%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	20.9%	87.8%	84.2%	11.5%	—	55.1%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	87.4%	14.1%	20.0%	14.1%	51.3%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	83.6%	63.7%	7.6%	—	65.0%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	9.5%	85.4%	75.5%	44.2%	44.2%	50.0%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	66.2%	64.8%	44.0%	—	24.8%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.6%	76.2%	75.0%	30.3%	30.3%	23.8%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	70.5%	66.1%	21.6%	—	17.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	81%	95.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-10 02:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	94.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	64%	93.9°F	3.8°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	63%	93.9°F	4.2°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	63%	93.6°F	3.4°F	2026-09-09 18:00	Pending
ICON	56%	93.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-10 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	92.7°F	2.7°F	2026-09-09 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 93°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260910-TMAX-GE93
Opened Sep 07 · 14:25 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 93°F+ · Thu Sep 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗