KBNA / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST44%Sep 12 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

60%

59%

42%

14%

Consensus

44%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 42.9¢Risks 42.85u

ICONNO 57.1¢Risks 57.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +57.15u · ICON −57.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	15.6%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	64.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	66.6%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	71.9%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	—	—	—	77.0%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	93.1%	—	—	57.0%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	99.0%	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	17.6%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	75.9%	—	—	64.6%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	78.3%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	31.8%	—	24.9%	—	—	65.8%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	78.2%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	78.6%	12.6%	—	66.4%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	60.1%	51.5%	—	65.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	25.0%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.1%	9.3%	72.4%	28.9%	—	55.3%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.4%	—	60.0%	—	—	0.2%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	24.8%	75.2%	57.1%	—	54.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	7.0%	93.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	27.9%	66.2%	69.2%	—	49.2%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	21.4%	84.3%	—	—	53.4%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	30.7%	38.8%	30.7%	65.4%	—	63.7%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	23.5%	33.4%	50.0%	—	—	61.5%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	34.7%	25.1%	77.0%	—	51.8%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	36.1%	76.9%	—	—	40.6%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.2%	12.1%	76.0%	67.0%	—	38.5%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	10.0%	76.6%	—	—	25.7%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	7.8%	79.5%	59.2%	—	29.4%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	43.7%	72.1%	—	—	22.8%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	10.9%	72.7%	4.0%	1.6%	26.4%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	28.6%	69.5%	3.3%	—	24.0%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	3.1%	23.3%	55.8%	2.4%	25.1%	5.4%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	33.6%	60.7%	27.3%	—	3.1%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	2.1%	78.3%	14.4%	22.7%	7.5%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	8.2%	28.0%	63.9%	2.4%	—	14.3%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	21.0%	85.9%	48.7%	24.0%	14.1%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.0%	48.6%	68.8%	35.0%	—	10.4%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	62.8%	78.8%	38.6%	24.5%	10.8%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	39.5%	75.2%	32.5%	—	39.5%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	60.9%	53.2%	27.6%	46.8%	6.1%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	53.3%	29.5%	37.0%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	72%	91.6°F	3.6°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	60%	90.5°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	59%	90.3°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	43%	89.0°F	2.8°F	2026-09-12 02:00	Pending
AIFS Single	42%	88.7°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 18:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	88.0°F	3.4°F	2026-09-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	85.6°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE90
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗