KBNA / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 11 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

42%

40%

<1%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.2¢Risks 33.20u

ICONNO 66.8¢Risks 66.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.80u · ICON −66.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-09-09T15:08:26+00:00	21.7%	26.2%	46.7%	56.1%	7.8%
2026-09-09T15:53:34+00:00	21.7%	26.2%	46.7%	56.1%	7.8%
2026-09-09T16:38:39+00:00	21.7%	26.2%	46.7%	56.1%	5.5%
2026-09-09T17:23:45+00:00	21.7%	26.2%	44.6%	56.1%	5.5%
2026-09-09T18:08:52+00:00	21.7%	26.2%	44.6%	56.1%	5.5%
2026-09-09T18:53:57+00:00	21.7%	26.2%	44.6%	56.1%	5.5%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00	16.3%	26.2%	44.6%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00	16.3%	26.2%	44.6%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00	16.3%	26.2%	44.6%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00	16.3%	26.2%	44.6%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00	16.3%	26.2%	44.6%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00	16.3%	26.2%	42.4%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00	16.3%	26.2%	42.4%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00	16.3%	26.2%	42.4%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00	26.6%	26.2%	42.4%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-10T02:25:01+00:00	26.6%	40.5%	42.4%	48.2%	5.5%
2026-09-10T15:12:01+00:00	20.7%	45.9%	45.5%	70.9%	4.2%
2026-09-10T15:57:11+00:00	20.7%	45.9%	45.5%	70.9%	4.2%
2026-09-10T16:42:15+00:00	20.7%	45.9%	45.5%	70.9%	12.2%
2026-09-10T17:27:21+00:00	20.7%	45.9%	45.5%	70.9%	12.2%
2026-09-10T18:12:29+00:00	20.7%	45.9%	45.5%	70.9%	12.2%
2026-09-10T18:57:34+00:00	20.7%	45.9%	45.5%	70.9%	12.2%
2026-09-10T19:42:39+00:00	24.2%	45.9%	45.5%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-10T20:27:45+00:00	24.2%	45.9%	45.5%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-10T21:12:50+00:00	24.2%	45.9%	45.5%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-10T21:57:55+00:00	24.2%	45.9%	45.5%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-10T22:42:59+00:00	24.2%	45.9%	45.5%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-10T23:28:04+00:00	24.2%	45.9%	39.9%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-11T00:13:09+00:00	24.2%	45.9%	39.9%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-11T00:58:16+00:00	24.2%	46.8%	39.9%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-11T01:43:23+00:00	28.0%	42.7%	39.9%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-11T02:28:28+00:00	28.0%	42.7%	39.9%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-11T03:13:36+00:00	28.0%	42.7%	39.9%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-11T03:58:45+00:00	28.0%	42.7%	39.9%	3.1%	12.2%
2026-09-11T04:43:50+00:00	28.0%	42.7%	39.9%	3.1%	0.6%
2026-09-11T05:28:56+00:00	28.0%	42.7%	43.2%	3.1%	0.6%
2026-09-11T06:14:04+00:00	28.0%	42.7%	43.2%	3.1%	0.6%
2026-09-11T06:59:08+00:00	28.0%	42.7%	43.2%	3.1%	0.6%
2026-09-11T07:44:19+00:00	33.3%	42.7%	43.2%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T08:29:35+00:00	33.3%	42.7%	43.2%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T09:14:41+00:00	33.3%	42.7%	43.2%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T09:59:45+00:00	33.3%	42.7%	43.2%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T10:44:50+00:00	33.3%	42.7%	43.2%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T11:29:56+00:00	33.3%	61.7%	41.8%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T12:15:02+00:00	33.3%	61.7%	41.8%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T13:00:11+00:00	33.3%	61.7%	41.8%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T13:45:23+00:00	39.6%	61.7%	41.8%	8.0%	0.6%
2026-09-11T14:30:51+00:00	39.5%	65.8%	41.8%	8.0%	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	92.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	89.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	89.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	88.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	85.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	81.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗