KBNA / Sat Sep 12 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 91°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST22%Sep 11 · 14:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

42%

40%

<1%

Consensus

22%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 33.2¢Risks 33.20u

ICONNO 66.8¢Risks 66.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +66.80u · ICON −66.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T00:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-09-01T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-01T12:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-01T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-09-02T06:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-02T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	72.5%
2026-09-02T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-03T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	91.0%	—	—	51.2%
2026-09-03T06:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-03T12:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	53.0%
2026-09-03T18:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T00:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	98.5%	—	—	61.2%
2026-09-04T06:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	13.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-04T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	70.5%	—	—	58.4%
2026-09-04T18:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	73.1%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	19.8%	—	—	59.4%
2026-09-05T06:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	72.7%	—	—	—
2026-09-05T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	—	73.1%	9.3%	—	59.7%
2026-09-05T18:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T00:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	52.9%	44.2%	—	58.7%
2026-09-06T06:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-09-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	6.5%	65.6%	22.8%	—	47.7%
2026-09-06T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	52.3%	—	—	0.1%
2026-09-07T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	18.9%	68.4%	49.2%	—	46.0%
2026-09-07T06:00:00+00:00	16.8%	4.7%	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-09-07T12:00:00+00:00	10.1%	21.3%	58.3%	61.5%	—	40.9%
2026-09-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	15.7%	78.6%	—	—	44.9%
2026-09-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	30.7%	23.4%	57.0%	—	55.2%
2026-09-08T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	25.7%	41.1%	—	—	52.7%
2026-09-08T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	26.6%	18.4%	69.5%	—	42.7%
2026-09-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.7%	27.6%	69.1%	—	—	31.8%
2026-09-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.4%	7.9%	67.8%	57.7%	—	29.6%
2026-09-09T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	6.3%	68.3%	—	—	18.3%
2026-09-09T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	4.7%	71.5%	49.0%	—	21.2%
2026-09-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.8%	33.5%	62.5%	—	—	15.6%
2026-09-10T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	6.6%	62.9%	2.1%	0.8%	18.3%
2026-09-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	19.8%	59.0%	1.7%	—	16.1%
2026-09-10T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	15.3%	44.2%	1.1%	16.8%	2.9%
2026-09-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	23.4%	48.8%	18.3%	—	1.5%
2026-09-11T00:00:00+00:00	3.0%	0.9%	68.0%	8.5%	14.4%	4.0%
2026-09-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.3%	18.2%	51.3%	1.1%	—	8.2%
2026-09-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.3%	12.7%	77.0%	35.6%	14.9%	7.9%
2026-09-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	35.0%	55.6%	23.2%	—	5.4%
2026-09-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	48.5%	66.9%	25.6%	14.6%	5.5%
2026-09-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	26.0%	61.9%	20.2%	—	26.0%
2026-09-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.0%	45.3%	37.6%	16.1%	31.7%	2.6%
2026-09-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	37.0%	17.0%	22.8%	—	3.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	92.0°F	3.7°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	91.0°F	3.1°F	2026-09-11 02:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	42%	89.8°F	3.4°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	40%	89.4°F	4.2°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
National Blend	36%	88.9°F	4.4°F	2026-09-11 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	8%	85.2°F	3.8°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	81.5°F	3.5°F	2026-09-11 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 91°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260912-TMAX-GE91
Opened Sep 09 · 15:08 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 91°F · Sat Sep 12

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗