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KBNA / Sun Sep 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 100°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Sep 10 · 01:39 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
11%
HRES
7%
ICON
2%
WN2
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 5.8¢Risks 1.46u
VS
WN2NO 94.2¢Risks 23.54u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +23.54u · WN2 −23.54u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00AIFS Single: 16.7% · 2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00AIFS Single: 10.0% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00AIFS Single: 12.5% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00AIFS Single: 19.1% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00AIFS Single: 16.5% · 2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00AIFS Single: 12.9% · 2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00AIFS Single: 14.2% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00AIFS Single: 10.7% · 2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.0% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 1.1% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 0.3% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.0% · 2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.1% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 4.0% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.7% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.6% · 2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.4% · 2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 2.8% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.1% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.1% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 3.1% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.2% · 2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 1.0% · 2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00IFS HRES: 7.2% · 2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00IFS HRES: 9.4% · 2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00IFS HRES: 13.7% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00IFS HRES: 13.7% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00IFS HRES: 13.7% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00IFS HRES: 13.7% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00IFS HRES: 13.7% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00IFS HRES: 22.2% · 2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00IFS HRES: 10.4% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00IFS HRES: 6.8% · 2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:00ICON: 29.5% · 2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:00ICON: 15.1% · 2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:00ICON: 15.2% · 2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:00ICON: 17.7% · 2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:00ICON: 1.7% · 2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:0009-07 14:0309-08 14:0909-10 01:39
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-09-07T14:03:24+00:0016.7%1.0%3.0%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T14:25:58+00:0016.7%1.0%3.0%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T14:27:39+00:0016.7%1.0%3.0%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T14:51:45+00:0016.7%1.0%3.0%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T14:51:48+00:0016.7%1.0%3.0%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T15:36:56+00:0016.7%1.1%3.0%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T16:22:03+00:0016.7%1.1%3.0%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T17:07:09+00:0016.7%1.1%2.6%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T17:52:14+00:0016.7%1.1%2.6%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T18:37:19+00:0016.7%1.1%2.6%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T19:22:25+00:0016.7%1.1%2.6%7.2%17.7%
2026-09-07T20:07:31+00:0010.0%1.1%2.6%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-07T20:52:36+00:0010.0%1.1%2.6%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-07T21:37:40+00:0010.0%1.1%2.6%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-07T22:22:45+00:0010.0%1.1%2.6%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-07T23:07:50+00:0010.0%1.1%2.1%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-07T23:52:55+00:0010.0%1.1%2.1%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-08T00:38:00+00:0010.0%1.1%2.1%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-08T01:23:05+00:0012.5%1.1%2.1%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-08T02:08:10+00:0012.5%1.1%2.1%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-08T02:53:15+00:0012.5%1.1%2.1%9.4%29.5%
2026-09-08T03:38:21+00:0012.5%1.1%2.1%13.7%29.5%
2026-09-08T04:23:29+00:0012.5%1.1%2.1%13.7%29.5%
2026-09-08T05:08:33+00:0012.5%1.1%4.0%13.7%29.5%
2026-09-08T05:53:38+00:0012.5%1.1%4.0%13.7%29.5%
2026-09-08T06:38:43+00:0012.5%1.1%4.0%13.7%29.5%
2026-09-08T07:23:50+00:0019.1%1.1%4.0%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T08:08:58+00:0019.1%1.1%4.0%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T08:54:02+00:0019.1%1.1%4.0%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T09:39:07+00:0019.1%1.1%4.0%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T10:24:11+00:0019.1%0.3%4.0%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T11:09:16+00:0019.1%0.3%2.7%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T11:54:22+00:0019.1%0.3%2.7%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T12:39:26+00:0019.1%0.3%2.7%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T13:24:30+00:0016.5%0.3%2.7%22.2%15.1%
2026-09-08T14:09:35+00:0016.5%0.3%2.6%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T14:54:40+00:0016.5%0.3%2.6%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T15:39:47+00:0016.5%0.3%2.6%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T15:49:09+00:0016.5%0.3%2.6%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T16:00:08+00:0016.5%0.3%2.6%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T16:45:15+00:0016.5%0.3%2.6%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T17:06:44+00:0016.5%0.3%2.4%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T17:20:29+00:0016.5%0.3%2.4%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T18:05:35+00:0016.5%0.3%2.4%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T18:50:39+00:0016.5%0.3%2.4%22.2%15.2%
2026-09-08T19:35:45+00:0012.9%0.3%2.4%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-08T20:20:50+00:0012.9%0.3%2.4%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-08T21:05:55+00:0012.9%0.3%2.4%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-08T21:51:00+00:0012.9%0.3%2.4%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-08T22:36:04+00:0012.9%0.3%2.4%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-08T23:21:10+00:0012.9%0.3%2.8%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T00:06:16+00:0012.9%0.3%2.8%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T00:51:22+00:0012.9%0.3%2.8%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T01:36:27+00:0014.2%0.3%2.8%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T02:21:33+00:0014.2%0.3%2.8%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T03:06:38+00:0014.2%0.3%2.8%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T03:51:47+00:0014.2%0.3%2.8%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T04:36:51+00:0014.2%0.3%2.8%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T05:21:56+00:0014.2%0.3%3.1%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T06:07:02+00:0014.2%0.3%3.1%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T06:52:07+00:0014.2%0.3%3.1%10.4%17.7%
2026-09-09T19:39:05+00:008.9%—1.2%6.8%1.7%
2026-09-09T20:24:13+00:008.9%—1.2%6.8%1.7%
2026-09-09T21:09:18+00:008.9%—1.2%6.8%1.7%
2026-09-09T21:54:23+00:008.9%—1.2%6.8%1.7%
2026-09-09T22:39:31+00:008.9%—1.2%6.8%1.7%
2026-09-09T23:24:36+00:008.9%—1.0%6.8%1.7%
2026-09-10T00:09:41+00:008.9%—1.0%6.8%1.7%
2026-09-10T00:54:48+00:008.9%—1.0%6.8%1.7%
2026-09-10T01:39:55+00:0010.7%—1.0%6.8%1.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single11%93.6°F4.8°F2026-09-09 18:00Pending
NWS forecast7%93.0°F4.5°F2026-09-09 14:00Pending
IFS HRES7%91.9°F5.1°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
National Blend2%91.6°F3.8°F2026-09-09 06:00Pending
ICON2%89.6°F4.7°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 21%90.5°F3.9°F2026-09-09 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 100°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20260913-TMAX-GE100
Opened Sep 07 · 14:03 UTC

Original listing: Triple digits in Nashville · Sun Sep 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗